How Likely Is It That the Government Will Shutdown Again

QUESTION: Congress has spent much of this yr necessarily focused on the coronavirus. The new fiscal yr begins on October 1, but neither chamber has passed a single spending bill for 2021. Are nosotros headed for another authorities shutdown in the fall?

Reply: Lawmakers in Washington have one must-do task each year: pass the twelve annual discretionary spending bills for the upcoming fiscal yr before October 1, when the new one begins. These twelve measures fund nearly defence force, education, transportation, energy, and environmental programs, as well as a number of vital social services like veteran'due south medical care, mental health programs, and certain food programs for the needy. If lawmakers cannot enact the annual appropriations on time, or pass a stopgap measure, federal agencies and the programs they administer will shutter.

Unfortunately, Congress has a poor runway record of getting its work done on time. In the by forty years, it has completed the appropriations process before October ane only iv times – nigh recently in 1996 for financial year 1997, nearly a quarter century ago.

Most years, Congress is able to pass only a fraction of the required spending measures on time and sometimes none at all. When this happens, lawmakers rely on a temporary funding mensurate called a "continuing resolution" (CR) to keep the regime open until it is able to pass the outstanding spending bills. As Congress rushes to consummate its work under a CR, often information technology volition package the remaining appropriations bills together in one giant omnibus appropriation bill or combine 2-4 spending bills into "minibus" appropriations packages.

Past mid-June, both the House and Senate Appropriations committees were poised to brainstorm a compressed and hectic schedule of spending markups. On July 6, the House rocketed forward, passing all twelve spending bills out of their subcommittees past July 8, and teed upward three for full-committee consideration on July 9.

This torrid pace is relatively easy to accomplish in the Firm of Representatives since that chamber (unlike the Senate) is able to laissez passer legislation with a unproblematic bulk vote. Equally long every bit the majority party can keep dissension inside its ranks to a minimum, the House can be a very nimble establishment. Indeed, the House expects to complete its piece of work on all 12 appropriations bills before the August recess.

The Senate began the 2021 appropriations process with similarly adept intentions, but a disagreement betwixt Republicans and Democrats over amendments in committee halted frontward momentum almost immediately. The Senate (unlike the Business firm) needs a supermajority of senators – 60 members – to bring appropriations bills to the floor.

Republicans concord the bulk in the bedchamber, only they control only 53 seats – they need the back up of at least 7 Democrats to motion forward.

In June, Democrats signaled that they would offer controversial amendments pertaining to COVID-19 and police reform in committee markups of the 2021 appropriations bills; Republicans wanted Democrats to reserve those amendments for separate but upcoming legislation to avoid imperiling the path forward for appropriations legislation. Without an understanding on amendments in commission, the Republican-led Senate had no path to secure the threescore votes needed to bring the appropriations bills to the floor. Although conversations and negotiations proceed, the Senate appropriations process remains stalled.

All of this points to one predictable effect this yr: at some indicate before October i, Congress and the president will enact a brusk-term continuing resolution that will fund the government until after the November elections. At that point, the results of the presidential and congressional elections will be known, and lawmakers will decide whether to wrap upward their work before Christmas or punt completion of the appropriations procedure to 2021 under a new assistants.

Occasionally, Congress has struggled to pass a continuing resolution causing the government to temporarily shut. During the Trump administration there were two cursory partial shutdowns in Jan and February 2018, followed by a tape-breaking 35-twenty-four hour period shutdown that began in December 2018. Most budget watchers agree, however, that the present political climate makes any shutdown (total or partial) highly unlikely. Not merely is the federal government facing dual crises in public wellness and the domestic economy, but it'due south an election twelvemonth. Republicans and Democrats akin are very eager to demonstrate their party's ability to pb and that includes keeping the government open and performance - at least through the November elections.

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Source: https://www.concordcoalition.org/fall-shutdown

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